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Obama's victory speech来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-11-06 21:44:09
(和学习英文的朋友分享) Here is the text of President-elect Barack Obama's victory speech in Chicago on Tuesday, as released by his campaign:
Tuesday, November 4th, 2008
Chicago, Illinois
If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
It's the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.
It's the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled - Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.
It's the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.
It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.
I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he's fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation's promise in the months ahead.
I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation's next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that's coming with us to the White House. And while she's no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.
To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics - you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you've sacrificed to get it done.
But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to - it belongs to you.
I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn't start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington - it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.
It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation's apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.
I know you didn't do this just to win an election and I know you didn't do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they'll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor's bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.
The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there.
There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can't solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face.
I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it's been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years - block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.
What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek - it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.
So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it's that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers - in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.
Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House - a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, "We are not enemies, but friends...though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection." And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.
For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that's on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She's a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing - Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.
She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn't vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.
And tonight, I think about all that she's seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can't, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.
At a time when women's voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.
When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.
When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.
She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that "We Shall Overcome." Yes we can.
A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.
America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?
This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:
Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America |
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用货币基金做股票基金定投来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-10-29 17:34:38
一年前，广发基金开通广发卡的直销定投的时候，我就有过一个想法：如果能直接用货币基金定时转换股票基金就好了。 原因有几个：一，广发虽然开通了广发卡和农行卡的直销定投，但他们支持的建行卡和兴业卡不支持直销定投，那持有这两张卡的人自然不能享受到直销定投的优惠。二，直销定投是每月定时银行和基金公司转账，到底是两个系统，转换的时候自然可能会有故障的时候，到咱们发现交易没有成功，为时已晚。三，货币基金的收益到底比活期存款的要好，把钱放在活期里面等待定投，不如放在货币基金里面。 其实货币基金自动定时转换成股票基金应该并不是难的事情，因为这是一个基金公司内部交易的问题。既然基金公司内部可以转换基金，那定时转换基金也应该是可以的，当然是需要持有人的同意。 今天在广发基金的网站上看到了他们终于完成了这个功能。http://www.gffunds.com.cn/view.bo?oid=shownews&newsid=16177.0。 我真觉得是挺高兴的事情，尤其是在这种整天下跌的行情中，能高兴的事情可是不多啊。 广发用了一个“钱袋子”的表述。“钱袋子”就是货币基金，給“钱袋子”充值就是买入货币基金，取现就是赎回货币基金。而在定时定额交易的地方增加出一个从“钱袋子”里面定投的功能。也就是从货币基金中定时定额自动转换到股票或者债券基金，也就是用货币基金做股票或者债券基金的定投。这的的确确是我想要的一个功能。也就是说用建行卡或者兴业卡直销的朋友，现在也可以参与定投了。 当然这事情也还有些缺陷，首先对于那些每个月等着发工资以后再定投的朋友就很难享受到这个优势，因为你毕竟还得先买货基。不过你稍微有点存款就可以放到货基里面去也就可以了。其次，代销的货币基金还是不能转换，这一直是直销和代销的区别。再则现在广发好像只能设定从一种银行卡买的货币基金中自动转换，如果允许从多个卡买的货基转换就更人性化了。 总而言之，这个功能对建行卡和兴业卡直销广发基金的朋友肯定是一个好消息，对其他卡的也不错啊。 真希望更多的基金公司有这种功能。 这贴就算是广告吧。呵呵。 PS: 定投一直是我推荐的投资方式，在这种行情中，我觉得定投更要坚持啊。 |
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偶遇世界经济巨匠来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-10-05 20:49:41
前两个星期去了趟英国。这是第一次去英国，本来这次旅行和经济毫无关系，但非常偶然的机会，居然“偶遇”了两伟世界经济巨匠。 第一个是亚当斯密。苏格兰的爱丁堡是亚当斯密最后呆过的城市，在大街上有一个高大的亚当斯密雕像。但我见到亚当斯密先生的时候，他那伟大《国富论》的头颅上居然被带着一顶塑料的交通隔离墩（后来才知道这尊雕像是08年7月才落成的）。
被恶搞的亚当斯密 第二位是凯恩斯。在剑桥参观了凯恩斯先生的母校和任教的地方 - 剑桥国王学院。国王学院应该算是剑桥里面最漂亮的学院之一，徐志摩在这里旁听过一年。
剑桥国王学院的后院 |
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出差两个星期来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-09-20 20:56:37
从明天起要出国两个星期左右，十月四日才回来。网好像是比较困难上了，回答不了问题。请见谅。
我知道很多朋友总希望我能写几句，可我真的不知道怎么写。适合我的良药很可能是别人的毒品，尤其在这样惨淡的市场中。 我从6000点一直持有到现在，定投当然在继续。既然不能判断顶，当然也判断不了底。从6000一路下来，根本不知道会到1800。判断不了牛转熊，也就相信我判断不了熊转牛，所以就做过山车好了。不过对未来，我还是非常抱有憧憬的。：） 不管短期操作还是长期持有，挣钱只有一个办法：低买高卖，这是太简单的道理。高买低卖,这一定亏钱啊。所以我在熊市绝对不会卖基金，而只会买。不过，我也知道很多朋友希望在熊市开始就卖掉基金，然后在熊市的底部再买入。这当然是漂亮的做法，但我判断不了。 在牛市的时候看空，至少可以说是提示风险；而在熊市中看多，总象是把人推入火坑。所以，我还是尽量少说为好啊。
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再看《伟大的博弈》来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-08-13 21:18:56
在看奥运会的同时，又在重新读我非常喜欢的书-《伟大的博弈》，英文书名就是《The Great Game》，讲了从1653到2004年中350年中华尔街的历史。 电视上是Olympic Game，手里捧的是The Great Game。也许这个比喻不恰当，但我似乎从华尔街的历史里面看到了“更快、更强、更高”的奥林匹克精神。350年历史的是牛熊转换的历史，也是失败和成功的历史，但更多的是奋斗的历史。 最感慨是书末的这段话，而且从下面这段话中似乎还找到了点投资和天文的共同点。呵呵 “尽管有数不清的海难，人类依然扬帆出海；同样的道理，尽管有无数次股灾，人们依然会进入这个市场，辛勤地买低卖高，怀着对美好未来的憧憬，将手里的资金投入到股市，去参与这场博弈。这和人们去探险——去看看地平线以外的未知世界，是一个道理。它们都是我们人类本性无法分割的一部分。事实上，在资本市场博弈和到未知世界去探险都源于我们人类的同一种冲动，因为市场的地平线之外也是一个未知世界 -- 未来。”
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封基分红的一点点演算, 请大家指正来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-08-02 12:49:27
对封基，我的确是门外汉。一个朋友非要我关注一下封基的分红，只好盛情难却，演算了点封基分红的过程。但的确没有任何的实际操作经验和感性认识，完全是纸上谈兵。所以放出来请封基爱好者给予指正。希望能从概念和知识这个层面弄清楚我的理解是不是正确。请大家一定不吝赐教。
演算完全是基于我对基金操作最基础的认识。数学上只涉及到加减乘除，没有任何复杂的，只是有一点点繁，最多是初中的应用题吧。整个过程在本文的后面附录，其中有些用词也很不规范，很不专业，但大体应该清楚。完全是草草的推导，绝对不到专业水准。在推导前，对封基分红的概念几乎没有，推导得到的结论我再去网上寻找答案，好像还是可以能圆现在普遍的说法。 直接说从推导中得到的两个结论吧。 1，封基分红后，净值和价格都会等值下跌，下跌量就是分红值。比如净值2元，价格1.5元的封基，分红2毛，那分红后理论上净值就会是1.8元，价格是1.3元。对于净值等量下跌，这个对于搞开基的人都很清楚。但对于有折价率的价格同等下跌，这个就很奇特。其实这后面有一个背景，就是单纯分红并不带来额外的资产。单纯的分红，并不会让你多出钱来。这也是我推导的一个假设条件。这个结论和很多讨论封基的人的结论是一致的，而且也应该符合实际情况。 2，折价率会加大。加大的幅度我也推导出来了，很简单的一个公式，见附录。其实从上面的例子中也就看到分红前折价率是25%，而分红后折价率是27.8%。这个也符合封基的基本知识。 从这两个结论就会延伸出对封基分红的讨论。 由于分红后折价率会加大，就会产生一个填权行情。也就是说市场对折价率有个估值，当折价率高于这个估值时，市场会填补这个缺口，让折价率回到合适的数值。折价率降低，如果不考虑市场波动，就意味着价格上升。价格上升，当然就意味着有钱赚。所以理论上，价格会在分红时陡降(下降分红量），然后再回升，回到折价率和分红前相当的程度。这就是填权。 但实际可能的现象有几种，一种是按照理论的上述走法；第二种是由于有分红填权的预期，在封基分红公告出来后，价格就是上涨，折价率降低。这样在分红后，虽然折价率升高，但也回到和分红公告前相似的数值。这好像就是分红脉冲行情。第三，如果市场走势不好，也可能大家对分红填权的预期减少，这样不出现脉冲行情，也不出现填权行情，或者不能填满权，结果就导致分红后折价率增加了。但从另外一个角度，这时候的封基更有投资价值。 影响实际行情的因素很多，分红是一个，但市场总体的走势也会对净值、价格、折价率都有影响，但总体来讲封基分红是利好信息。那么如果想抓住分红行情，应该在分红公告出来之前买封基。 上面是我凭想象和推导得到些结论，再重复一遍完全是纸上谈兵，只是点数学上的理解，而且还不能保证我演算的是正确的。非常真心的希望大家批评指正。能帮助我提高，这是求之不得的事情。 是不是投资封基是一回事情，但多学点知识总是好事情。
PS: 我还有一个问题，历史上有没有没有填权的行情，或者填不满的行情发生过？ 但这肯定有个时间，最终一定是会填上去的。到封转开的时候，就没有折价率了。对否？
附录：演算过程
设分红前：净值 N，价格 P，折价率 X，原始份额 C， 分红 d 价格：P=N*（1-X）
分红前： 总资产=P*C=C*N*（1-X） 净资产= N*C
分红后， 净值N1=N-d 如果折价率不变： 价格P1=N1*(1-x)=(N-d)*(1-x) 现金分红量=d*C, 红利再投资后得到的份额 C1=现金分红量/P1=C*d / (N-d)*(1-x) 红利再投资后总份额=C+C1=C+ C*d / (N-d)*(1-x) 红利再投资后总资产 =P1* (C+C1)=C*( N-d)*(1-x)+C*d 红利再投资后资产增加量= C*( N-d)*(1-x)+C*d - C*N*（1-X）=C*d*X, 也就是一份增加d*X 整个推导的前提式X不变，结果分红后就资产平白无故增加了。市场不会那么傻的。我认为会补这个缺口，以保证资产分红前后不变。 设分红后的X变为X1 那么C*( N-d)*(1-x1)+C*d = C*N*（1-X） N-X1*N-d+X1*d+d=N-X*N -X1*N+X1*d= - X*N X1/X=N/(N-d) X1> X, 折价率进一步升高，价格再降。份额多了，价格降了，从而总资产不变。也就是分红的时候应该再买，分的越多，买入的应该越多。 分红后的价格 P1=(1-X1)*N1 = (1- X1)*（N-d）= (1-X*N/(N-d))*(N-d)=N(1-x)-d = P- d 也就是结果是分红多少，价格就降低多少。 折价率变大。分红后的折价率 X1=N/(N-d) * X |
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基坛：牛熊转换的感想（七）来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-07-31 15:57:55
上网的基民少有不上基坛的，我自己也是从基坛一路走过来，而且和很多版主都有很好的关系。但两年来，对于基坛，我的确也有很多看法。 基坛，披着一层虚拟的外衣，而且鱼龙混杂。真正能在论坛上提高自己不是一件容易的事情。稍微有点人气的基坛，一天也有几百个帖子，能上精品的凤毛麟角，而且沉下去的速度很快。对于新基民来讲，在这些帖子中做出合适的选择是很难的事情。 其次，基坛情绪化的东西太多，谩骂的嗓门高于讲理的声音，这是我最不喜欢的。大盘涨的时候，骂自己手上的基金和基金公司，大盘跌的时候更是无所不骂。本来一个问题的分歧讨论，往往变成硝烟弥漫的战场。对不同意自己观点的人，讽刺挖苦，文笔好得很，但真正说出点道道又不见多少能力。 再则，不可否认的是基坛上新手太多。新手最大的问题是缺乏主见，而在一个嘈杂的论坛中，很容易人云亦云。完全迷失自己的方向。 第四，能预测未来的股神基神满天飞。“立帖为证，明天大涨/跌”的人层出不穷。 第五，灌水的人比讨论主题的人还多。唉。。。 论坛的特点是热闹，消息多，消息快，但这些消息几乎都是小道消息或者是胡编乱造。听论坛消息买基金的人没有什么好结果的。 说白了，我不建议泡论坛，最多看看版主推荐的精品帖，新基民尤其如此。泡论坛不如泡博客，博客的东西几乎是博主的思想，而论坛更多的是信手拈来。在论坛时间长了，心态就很难平和。 唉，另一方面我挺同情那些版主的，这个就不多说了。
PS. 本来还想把这个帖子转发到我熟悉的论坛，想想还是算了，我可不想挨砖头，也不想拆版主的台。
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闲钱：牛熊转换的感想（六）来自：http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/ | 2008-07-30 19:13:26
我始终认为闲钱是投资的第一要素，这是一个大大的前提。 在牛市的时候，往往大多数人忘记这个原则。且不说贷款买基，节衣缩食的人不在少数。记得一个笑话，就说到看到每块德芙巧克力，都觉得是一份份的基金。 闲钱投资，第一个是控制风险，也就是流动性的风险。不是闲钱，必然就不可能靠时间来平滑市场的波动，快进快出就是唯一的选择。如果战之能胜当然是好结果，但一旦被套，结局就非常惨烈。被迫割肉，可是大大的不妙啊。从这一点上，也很容易区分咱们是在投资还是投机。有人说：投机不成就变成了投资，抄股失败就成了股东。可如果不是闲钱，这两条都做不到。 买基不是生活的全部。如果真把吃巧克力的乐趣都被买基金的欲望所剥夺，那似乎真的是守财奴了。投资是现在生活和未来生活的平衡，既然是平衡就不要舍去现在的生活，日子是一天天过的。 在牛市里面，让朋友少投一点是很难做到的事情，因为大部分人根本就没有想到市场会跌。他们甚至不认为自己是在孤注一掷。在赚钱的时候，往往信心都会膨胀，觉得自己很英明，结果本金越投越多，把不是闲钱的钱也投入进去。最后市场转熊的时候，本金都会亏损。投资一开始赚未必就是好事情，因为这太容易让人忘记风险。
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